Afternoon D & C Dedicated To Mumbai
Home > Business > HDFC Bank pegs GDP growth higher at 7.3% in FY19 on rural push

HDFC Bank pegs GDP growth higher at 7.3% in FY19 on rural push

Thursday, January 11, 2018

Second largest private sector lender HDFC Bank expects an uptick in GDP growth in FY19 to 7.3% from the 6.5% estimated for FY18, expecting a rural push by Government and rise in consumption.

"We expect GDP growth to pick up to 7.3% in FY19 and the gross value added growth to stand at 7.1%," its economists said in a note.

The government's official estimate for FY18 growth stands at 6.5%, much lower than what experts would call as the potential, and restricted by the GST implementation and effects of the note ban.

HDFC Bank said a normal monsoon will support rural consumption and additionally, help will also come from farm loan waivers. A surge in salaries for government servants through the implementation of the seventh pay commission will also help.

The Government will focus on rural sector and infrastructure, including road, railways and affordable housing, it said.

Efficiency gains from GST roll out and a disappearance of the demonetisation reverses will give a positive base effect for the growth, it said.

On the negative side, it warned of a surge in oil prices causing the 'twin deficit' problem with a surge in fiscal and current account gaps, sluggish global growth and a rise in consumption restricting the consumption.

Even as it put governments at the centre and states adopting fiscal consolidation path as one of the factors which can negatively impact growth, it estimated the central government to not narrow the FY19 fiscal deficit to the targeted level of 3% under an adopted path. It said the fiscal deficit for FY19 will come at 3.2%. The bank economists also expect the current account deficit to widen to 2.5% for FY19, from the 1.5% expected for FY18.

On the inflation front, it said price-rise will peak to 6% by mid-2018 on a low base and cool-off in the second half of the fiscal.

It expects a hike of 0.25% in the policy rate by the Reserve Bank during the fiscal year 2018-19.

COMMENTS
No Comments Posted
POST YOUR COMMENTS
Name:  
 
Email:    
Comments:
 
 
City news
Picked up by Bandra Police Station’s PSI Deepak ...
Two days after the Anti Extortion Cell (AEC) ...
The Thane Traffic Police held a campaign highligh
I am a 25-year-old mother. I do not want to make
Dr. Rajan B. Bhonsle, M.D. (Bom)
Consulting Sex Therapist & Counsellor
Dr. (Mrs.) Minnu R. Bhonsle, Ph.D.
Consulting Psychotherapist & Counsellor
Astrology
Select Sun sign:
 
Aries (Mar 21 - Apr 20)
Aries (Mar 21 - Apr 20)You get pleasant surprise with unexpected gains coming your way. Watch out for people who may want to take advantage of you. Some jealous elements may be bent on creating problems for you at work. Take some preventive action may be by informing those that matter. A casual acquaintanceship seems to get more interesting and intimate. If you are fancy free then this is the beginning of your love life.
- Advertising -
Ahead of the Budget, Finance Minister Arun Jaitle
For the sixth week in a row now the Sensex gained
Noted development economist Jean Dreze has pitche
Read More