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India FY18 GDP growth likely at 7.1%: Nomura

Thursday, September 14, 2017

India's GDP growth is expected to be around 7.1% this fiscal following a likely pick up in industrial production as firms resort to 'restocking' post GST especially ahead of festive season, says a Nomura report.

According to the Japanese financial services major, post-GST restocking is likely to drive a faster pace of industrial output growth in the coming quarters.

Before the implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST), destocking was triggered largely owing to a steep fall in demand from consumers as they delayed purchases. Post GST implementation, restocking might pick up in anticipation of rising demand conditions.

Nomura further said the ongoing remonetisation will have a positive impact on the cash-intensive services sectors and this in turn will help to augur growth numbers.

"On the growth front, we expect industrial production to gradually pick up as firms focus on restocking after GST and especially ahead of the festive season; hence we think the recovery will likely continue to be led by consumption," Nomura said.

"Overall, we expect GDP growth of 7.1% year-on- year and GVA growth of 6.7% in 2017-18 (year ending March 2018)," it said.

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