A.R. Kanangi
WHAT will the UPA government do now? Mamata Banerjee, it’s ally, is furiously against the setting up of National Counter Terror Centre (NCTC) in West Bengal.
It looks like Mamata has stirred a hornet’s nest: Chief ministers of five states, top politicians belonging to national parties have all joined her and are demanding that the move to start the NCTC should be dropped. In no time at all, the states are likely to register strong objections against the NCTC. They have all started saying it is an attack on federalism and it is a move which will result in the encroachment on powers of the state.
The UPA, headed by the Congress party, has all along been dropping quite a few plans because of arm-twisting by its allies. It desperately wants the support of its allies in order to muster the magical majority in Parliament.
If it loses support, it will have to step down and call for Parliament poll. It perhaps knows that its image is not good, following varied and many scams carried out by its ministers. And hence it has been hell-bent on avoiding a confrontation with its allies.
The UPA government has been cutting a sorry picture by introducing new laws, by undertaking new initiatives without first consulting other national political parties – and even its own allies. As a result, quite often, it has had to eat humble pie and withdraw its plans and proposals.
Has it now the required plan to face Mamata Banerjee’s challenge?
The creation of the NCTC which is meant to launch from March 1 a fight against terror should have been set up only after extensive consultation with state governments and leaders of political parties.
Mamata Banerjee has written a letter to the Prime Minister asking him to withdraw the move.
Mamata’s Trinamool Congress has 19 members in the alliance (UPA) which is headed by the Congress. Knowing its minority status in Parliament, the Congress sticks to its allies and accepts their demands. Mamata has fully utilized her bargaining capacity and got the UPA do what she wanted. For instance, it was because of her firm stand against the FDI in retail that the UPA had no go but to drop the proposal.
Mamata was all the time threatening the UPA: “do what I say or else….”
The coalition compulsions which the UPA government faces, limit its style of functioning, cuts down its capacity for strong governance and also affects its decision making.
The UPA’s prestige has nosedived following its desperate effort to muster majority in Parliament. It kept silent when A. Raja’s 2G scam was going on because his party (DMK) did some arm-twisting and threatened to withdraw support.
It looks like the Congress has now decided to cut Mamata Banerjee to size. It has announced it will go ahead with the NCTC plan.
It has thrown a challenge at the Trinamool Congress. Evidently it has made some other plan to work up a majority. In all probability, it has made a deal with Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party. It is also possible that the Congress will team up with the SP and form the government in Uttar Pradesh.
On whose side India should be
— Israel or Iran?
THERE is a deadly conflict between Iran and Israel. On whose side India should be – Israel or Iran?
India has cordial relations with both countries. It had good relations with Iran -- long before it established diplomatic relations with Israel. It took a pretty long time for India to establish full diplomatic connections with Israel, thanks to our West Asia policy.
Today the whole scenario has changed. There are exchanges in many ways between Israel and India. We buy weapons from Israel. We are engaged in joint campaigns against terror. Israel has become a close ally and cooperation has increased a great deal. We have mutually gainful relations with
Israel.
Iran has been a good friend and a partner with India. We recognize that Iran cannot go all out and extend support to us. Iran, which is a neighbour of Pakistan, supports that country in international forums like the United Nations. At the same time, Iran works for peace between India and Pakistan. A proposal has been there for a long time to build a pipeline through Pakistan to India. So far it has remained a pipe-dream but sooner or later we might get oil from Iran pumped through a pipe laid across Pakistan. Even now, we are importing oil from Iran and it is very important for our economy.
The United States and other European powers have been trying hard to get India join them in moves for Iran’s isolation. India will never do this because – apart from other reasons, our national interests are involved.
When Israeli diplomatic staff was attacked in Delhi, India did not – like other western nations – point the accusing fingers at Iran. There is no proof, India said. But for Israel and the US no proof is necessary. Israel has already announced that Iran has done it. Iran has emphatically denied it had any role in it.
Our foreign minister has announced, India will continue to import crude oil from Iran. India gets some 12 per cent of its crude oil needs from Iran. India just cannot yield to European, American and Israeli pressure and move away from Iran. We have very solid, useful, permanent relations with America and Israel, but not the remotest chance that we will join them against Iran.
In the event of a conflict, it is most unlikely India will join the western powers against Iran. We are with China, Pakistan and maybe the Soviet Union in standing by Iran.
The US has moved an aircraft carrier to the Strait of Hormuz. A strike against Iran will be disastrous. Though it has issued a denial regarding its possession of nuclear bombs, it is certain Iran has nuclear bombs.
If Israel carries out any strike, it could cause much damage in Iran. But just one nuclear bomb fired at Israel can cause a big disaster: There will be instant deaths and thousands of people exposed to radiation will die slowly – generation after generation. A war between two nuclear nations cannot happen.
With nuclear installations in place, Iran is strong now. Israel cannot hold Iran at bay as it could all these years. For the first time, Israel is planning to approach the United Nations assembly with its complaint against Iran. It cannot get the issue in the U.N. Security Council because the Chinese will definitely veto it out.
There may not be a war but there is likely to a deadly ‘cold war’ between the two countries. And India’s policy should be on neither the side of Israel, nor Iran. The only way for India is to be strictly neutral and maintain close and cooperative relations with both the countries.