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Tricky situation

Friday, May 25, 2012

We are facing the worst currency crisis in 20 years. The downward trend continues for the sixth consecutive day. Meltdown in asset prices including crude/gold and platinum is the root cause for the rupee falling. With Indian rupee falling free at Rs.56, at an all time low against dollar, there is no guarantee that it will not fall further and the Watchdog called RBI cannot do anything to arrest the slide.

Foreign Investors in stock have already lost 25 per cent and further fall is imminent. Indian Government needs to take stringent action before the situation becomes helpless. The rupee has been weak since July 2011 and the trend continues since then. The country is driven by low growth, high inflation, tight liquidity, high interest rates and high fiscal deficit and high trade deficit.  The balance of payments position is going from bad to worse.

The only positive favouring India is the 13 per cent fall in crude oil prices but that is not enough to counter the negative forces at play.
 

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